Bank profits are holding at near-record levels, but may be showing the first signs of a slowing economy.
Collective profits for the sector were $1.77 billion for the three months ended December, fractionally below the previous quarter, with modest growth in lending and margins and a hint that bad debts may start rising.
Industry profit was 9.7 per cent higher than the same period a year earlier, and a report released in March showed collective industry profits for the year ended December was a record $7.2b.
Head of banking at the advisory firm KPMG, John Kensington, says the banks were strong performers at the end of the year – but the profit growth has slowed and may have peaked.
The growth in banks’ net interest income – the difference between borrowing and lending costs – slowed to 4.5 per cent, still reflecting borrowers rolling off historically low fixed interest rates.
Kensington says the survey is a bellwether of conditions to come with growth flattening out, credit demand slowing and risks rising.
He expects the banks would feel the pinch across their business.
ANZ remained the biggest bank with more than $193b in assets, with BNZ second, followed by ASB and Westpac. The biggest locally owned bank was Kiwibank, in fifth.
Kensington says there are few worries that New Zealand banks would get caught up in the sort of sector turmoil seen recently in the US and Switzerland, given they had different make up of their businesses and were strongly capitalised.
Credit: sunlive.co.nz
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