Mount Ruapehu, a volcano in New Zealand, last erupted in 1995-1996. Experts say if it erupts again, ash could cover many homes in North Island, even in places like Auckland. The Natural Hazards Commission is funding a new model by GNS Science. This model will help emergency teams track where ash falls and how much there is, which will aid in quick responses.
Dr. Josh Hayes from GNS is working on this model. He believes Ruapehu will likely erupt again within the next 50 years. While past eruptions caused little damage, the next could be larger and affect different areas. Due to limited data on past ashfalls in New Zealand, researchers are using information from other countries to predict impacts.
The new model will use real-time ash fall data from Geonet, combined with information about buildings and their risks. This will help emergency teams understand what structures may be damaged during an eruption. The model will be updated constantly with new information, especially if the volcano erupts multiple times.
Dr. Hayes noted that while ash can cause some issues (like gutters collapsing), significant building damage is less likely because there are not many homes close to the volcano. Most of the surrounding land is national park, acting as a natural barrier against severe destruction.
The Natural Hazards Commission’s goal is to make New Zealand more prepared for natural disasters. They want communities to recover faster after events like volcanic eruptions. Ruapehu’s mayor, Weston Kirton, remembers the 1996 eruption, which disrupted airports and ski fields. He supports the new ash fall model, hoping it will improve planning and responses in the future. The model is expected to be finished by the end of 2025.
